The potential for coral reef restoration to mitigate coastal flooding as sea levels rise.

The ability of reefs to protect coastlines from storm-driven flooding hinges on their capacity to keep pace with sea-level rise. Here, we show how and whether coral restoration could achieve the often-cited goal of reversing the impacts of coral-reef degradation to preserve this essential function. We combined coral-growth measurements and carbonate-budget assessments of reef-accretion potential at Buck Island Reef, U.S. Virgin Islands, with hydrodynamic modeling to quantify future coastal flooding under various coral-restoration, sea-level rise, and storm scenarios. Our results provide guidance on how restoration of Acropora palmata, if successful, could mitigate the most extreme impacts of coastal flooding by reversing projected trajectories of reef erosion and allowing reefs to keep pace with the ~0.5 m of sea-level rise expected by 2100 with moderate carbon-emissions reductions. This highlights the potential long-term benefits of pursuing coral-reef restoration alongside climate-change mitigation to support the persistence of essential coral-reef ecosystem services.

Physicochemical coastal groundwater dynamics between Kauhako Crater lake and Kalaupapa settlement, Moloka'i, Hawai'i.

Land-based sources of groundwater pollution can be a critical threat to coral reefs, and a better understanding of "ridge-to-reef" water movement is required to advance management and coral survival in the Anthropocene. In this study a more complete understanding of the geological, atmospheric, and oceanic drivers behind coastal groundwater exchange on the Kalaupapa peninsula, on Moloka'i, Hawai'i, is obtained by analyzing high resolution geochemical and geophysical time-series data. In concert with multiyear water level analyses, a tidally and precipitation-driven groundwater connection between Kauhako Crater lake and submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) fluxes are demonstrated. Results include an average discharge rate of 190 cm d-1 and the detection of water-flow pathways past cesspools that likely contribute to higher nutrient loading near the SGD sites. This underlines the importance of managing anthropogenic nutrients that enter the shallow freshwater lens such as through cesspools and are consequently discharged via SGD onto coral reef habitats.

Characterizing storm-induced coastal change hazards along the United States West Coast.

Traditional methods to assess the probability of storm-induced erosion and flooding from extreme water levels have limited use along the U.S. West Coast where swell dominates erosion and storm surge is limited. This effort presents methodology to assess the probability of erosion and flooding for the U.S. West Coast from extreme total water levels (TWLs), but the approach is applicable to coastal settings worldwide. TWLs were derived from 61 years of wave and water level data at shore-perpendicular transects every 100-m along open coast shorelines. At each location, wave data from the Global Ocean Waves model were downscaled to the nearshore and used to empirically calculate wave run-up. Tides were simulated using the Oregon State University's tidal data inversion model and non-tidal residuals were calculated from sea-surface temperature and pressure anomalies. Wave run-up was combined with still water levels to generate hourly TWL estimates and extreme TWLs for multiple return periods. Extremes were compared to onshore morphology to determine erosion hazards and define the probability of collision, overwash, and inundation.

Rapid observations of ocean dynamics and stratification along a steep island coast during Hurricane María.

Hurricanes are extreme storms that affect coastal communities, but the linkages between hurricane forcing and ocean dynamics remain poorly understood. Here, we present full water column observations at unprecedented resolution from the southwest Puerto Rico insular shelf and slope during Hurricane María, representing a rare set of high-frequency, subsurface, oceanographic observations collected along an island margin during a hurricane. The shelf geometry and orientation relative to the storm acted to stabilize and strengthen stratification. This maintained elevated sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) throughout the storm and led to an estimated 65% greater potential hurricane intensity contribution at this site before eye passage. Coastal cooling did not occur until 11 hours after the eye passage. Our findings present a new framework for how hurricane interaction with insular island margins may generate baroclinic processes that maintain elevated SSTs, thus potentially providing increased energy for the storm.

Internal tides can provide thermal refugia that will buffer some coral reefs from future global warming.

Observations show ocean temperatures are rising due to climate change, resulting in a fivefold increase in the incidence of regional-scale coral bleaching events since the 1980s; analyses based on global climate models forecast bleaching will become an annual event for most of the world's coral reefs within 30-50 yr. Internal waves at tidal frequencies can regularly flush reefs with cooler waters, buffering the thermal stress from rising sea-surface temperatures. Here we present the first global maps of the effects these processes have on bleaching projections for three IPCC-AR5 emissions scenarios. Incorporating semidiurnal temperature fluctuations into the projected water temperatures at depth creates a delay in the timing of annual severe bleaching ≥ 10 yr (≥ 20 yr) for 38% (9%), 15% (1%), and 1% (0%) of coral reef sites for the low, moderate, and high emission scenarios, respectively; regional averages can reach twice as high. These cooling effects are greatest later in twenty-first century for the moderate emission scenarios, and around the middle twenty-first century for the highest emission scenario. Our results demonstrate how these effects could delay bleaching for corals, providing thermal refugia. Identification of such areas could be a factor for the selection of coral reef marine protected areas.

Geochemical sourcing of runoff from a young volcanic watershed to an impacted coral reef in Pelekane Bay, Hawaii.

Runoff of sediment and other contaminants from developed watersheds threatens coastal ecosystems and services. A sediment geochemical sourcing study was undertaken on a sediment-impacted coral reef flat to identify terrestrial sediment sources and how these changed over time. Geochemical signatures were identified for watershed soils that formed on Hawaiian basaltic and alkalic lavas using relatively immobile compatible (Ni, Sc) and incompatible (Nb, REE, Th) elements quantified by ICP-MS in total decompositions of the fine fraction of surface soils. Some soils also contained ash from late-erupting cinder cones that added alkalic geochemical signatures, resulting in distinctive mixed signatures near these geologic features. Sediment was collected in Pelekane Bay using sediment traps during winter 2010-2011 and a sediment core in order to geochemically source runoff entering the bay. Geochemical signatures in trapped sediment showed that runoff predominantly originated from the lower watershed along a highway corridor rather than from the upper watershed or areas with alkalic lavas. Soil in the highway corridor also contained Zn above levels of concern for aquatic organisms and anthropogenic Pb, indications that runoff control measures could reduce the exposure of the reef community to potentially toxic metals and other road-associated contaminants. The upper portion of a 60-yr long sediment record from Pelekane Bay was disturbed by tsunamigenic waves from the Tohoku earthquake, and the remainder was likely subject to mixing by winter waves that averaged out geochemical variations. On average, watershed regions with basaltic soils were the predominant source of runoff to the bay over the past 60 years. By linking sediment runoff to geographic regions or features in watersheds, geochemical sourcing can provide insights that allow resource managers to direct runoff mitigation and soil conservation efforts to areas where they will be most effective.

Most atolls will be uninhabitable by the mid-21st century because of sea-level rise exacerbating wave-driven flooding.

Sea levels are rising, with the highest rates in the tropics, where thousands of low-lying coral atoll islands are located. Most studies on the resilience of these islands to sea-level rise have projected that they will experience minimal inundation impacts until at least the end of the 21st century. However, these have not taken into account the additional hazard of wave-driven overwash or its impact on freshwater availability. We project the impact of sea-level rise and wave-driven flooding on atoll infrastructure and freshwater availability under a variety of climate change scenarios. We show that, on the basis of current greenhouse gas emission rates, the nonlinear interactions between sea-level rise and wave dynamics over reefs will lead to the annual wave-driven overwash of most atoll islands by the mid-21st century. This annual flooding will result in the islands becoming uninhabitable because of frequent damage to infrastructure and the inability of their freshwater aquifers to recover between overwash events. This study provides critical information for understanding the timing and magnitude of climate change impacts on atoll islands that will result in significant, unavoidable geopolitical issues if it becomes necessary to abandon and relocate low-lying island states.

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Many Atolls May be Uninhabitable Within Decades Due to Climate Change.

Observations show global sea level is rising due to climate change, with the highest rates in the tropical Pacific Ocean where many of the world's low-lying atolls are located. Sea-level rise is particularly critical for low-lying carbonate reef-lined atoll islands; these islands have limited land and water available for human habitation, water and food sources, and ecosystems that are vulnerable to inundation from sea-level rise. Here we demonstrate that sea-level rise will result in larger waves and higher wave-driven water levels along atoll islands' shorelines than at present. Numerical model results reveal waves will synergistically interact with sea-level rise, causing twice as much land forecast to be flooded for a given value of sea-level rise than currently predicted by current models that do not take wave-driven water levels into account. Atolls with islands close to the shallow reef crest are more likely to be subjected to greater wave-induced run-up and flooding due to sea-level rise than those with deeper reef crests farther from the islands' shorelines. It appears that many atoll islands will be flooded annually, salinizing the limited freshwater resources and thus likely forcing inhabitants to abandon their islands in decades, not centuries, as previously thought.

Will the Effects of Sea-Level Rise Create Ecological Traps for Pacific Island Seabirds?

More than 18 million seabirds nest on 58 Pacific islands protected within vast U.S. Marine National Monuments (1.9 million km2). However, most of these seabird colonies are on low-elevation islands and sea-level rise (SLR) and accompanying high-water perturbations are predicted to escalate with climate change. To understand how SLR may impact protected islands and insular biodiversity, we modeled inundation and wave-driven flooding of a globally important seabird rookery in the subtropical Pacific. We acquired new high-resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) and used the Delft3D wave model and ArcGIS to model wave heights and inundation for a range of SLR scenarios (+0.5, +1.0, +1.5, and +2.0 m) at Midway Atoll. Next, we classified vegetation to delineate habitat exposure to inundation and identified how breeding phenology, colony synchrony, and life history traits affect species-specific sensitivity. We identified 3 of 13 species as highly vulnerable to SLR in the Hawaiian Islands and quantified their atoll-wide distribution (Laysan albatross, Phoebastria immutabilis; black-footed albatross, P. nigripes; and Bonin petrel, Pterodroma hypoleuca). Our models of wave-driven flooding forecast nest losses up to 10% greater than passive inundation models at +1.0 m SLR. At projections of + 2.0 m SLR, approximately 60% of albatross and 44% of Bonin petrel nests were overwashed displacing more than 616,400 breeding albatrosses and petrels. Habitat loss due to passive SLR may decrease the carrying capacity of some islands to support seabird colonies, while sudden high-water events directly reduce survival and reproduction. This is the first study to simulate wave-driven flooding and the combined impacts of SLR, groundwater rise, and storm waves on seabird colonies. Our results highlight the need for early climate change planning and restoration of higher elevation seabird refugia to prevent low-lying protected islands from becoming ecological traps in the face of rising sea levels.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation.

The world's coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Response of reef corals on a fringing reef flat to elevated suspended-sediment concentrations: Moloka'i, Hawai'i.

A long-term (10 month exposure) experiment on effects of suspended sediment on the mortality, growth, and recruitment of the reef corals Montipora capitata and Porites compressa was conducted on the shallow reef flat off south Moloka'i, Hawai'i. Corals were grown on wire platforms with attached coral recruitment tiles along a suspended solid concentration (SSC) gradient that ranged from 37 mg l(-1) (inshore) to 3 mg l(-1) (offshore). Natural coral reef development on the reef flat is limited to areas with SSCs less than 10 mg l(-1) as previously suggested in the scientific literature. However, the experimental corals held at much higher levels of turbidity showed surprisingly good survivorship and growth. High SSCs encountered on the reef flat reduced coral recruitment by one to three orders of magnitude compared to other sites throughout Hawai'i. There was a significant correlation between the biomass of macroalgae attached to the wire growth platforms at the end of the experiment and percentage of the corals showing mortality. We conclude that lack of suitable hard substrate, macroalgal competition, and blockage of recruitment on available substratum are major factors accounting for the low natural coral coverage in areas of high turbidity. The direct impact of high turbidity on growth and mortality is of lesser importance.

Short-term variability of 7Be atmospheric deposition and watershed response in a Pacific coastal stream, Monterey Bay, California, USA.

Beryllium-7 is a powerful and commonly used tracer for environmental processes such as watershed sediment provenance, soil erosion, fluvial and nearshore sediment cycling, and atmospheric fallout. However, few studies have quantified temporal or spatial variability of (7)Be accumulation from atmospheric fallout, and parameters that would better define the uses and limitations of this geochemical tracer. We investigated the abundance and variability of (7)Be in atmospheric deposition in both rain events and dry periods, and in stream surface-water samples collected over a ten-month interval at sites near northern Monterey Bay (37°N, 122°W) on the central California coast, a region characterized by a rainy winters, dry summers, and small mountainous streams with flashy hydrology. The range of (7)Be activity in rainwater samples from the main sampling site was 1.3-4.4 Bq L(-1), with a mean (±standard deviation) of 2.2 ± 0.9 Bq L(-1), and a volume-weighted average of 2.0 Bq L(-1). The range of wet atmospheric deposition was 18-188 Bq m(-2) per rain event, with a mean of 72 ± 53 Bq m(-2). Dry deposition fluxes of (7)Be ranged from less than 0.01 up to 0.45 Bq m(-2) d(-1), with an estimated dry season deposition of 7 Bq m(-2) month(-1). Annualized (7)Be atmospheric deposition was approximately 1900 Bq m(-2) yr(-1), with most deposition via rainwater (>95%) and little via dry deposition. Overall, these activities and deposition fluxes are similar to values found in other coastal locations with comparable latitude and Mediterranean-type climate. Particulate (7)Be values in the surface water of the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz, California, ranged from <0.01 Bq g(-1) to 0.6 Bq g(-1), with a median activity of 0.26 Bq g(-1). A large storm event in January 2010 characterized by prolonged flooding resulted in the entrainment of (7)Be-depleted sediment, presumably from substantial erosion in the watershed. There were too few particulate (7)Be data over the storm to accurately model a (7)Be load, but the results suggest enhanced watershed export of (7)Be from small, mountainous river systems compared to other watershed types.

Quantity, composition, and source of sediment collected in sediment traps along the fringing coral reef off Molokai, Hawaii.

Sediment traps were used to evaluate the frequency, cause, and relative intensity of sediment mobility/resuspension along the fringing coral reef off southern Molokai (February 2000-May 2002). Two storms with high rainfall, floods, and exceptionally high waves resulted in sediment collection rates>1000 times higher than during non-storm periods, primarily because of sediment resuspension by waves. Based on quantity and composition of trapped sediment, floods recharged the reef flat with land-derived sediment, but had a low potential for burying coral on the fore reef when accompanied by high waves. The trapped sediments have low concentrations of anthropogenic metals. The magnetic properties of trapped sediment may provide information about the sources of land-derived sediment reaching the fore reef. The high trapping rate and low sediment cover indicate that coral surfaces on the fore reef are exposed to transient resuspended sediment, and that the traps do not measure net sediment accumulation on the reef surface.